CFIB and AppEco's Main Street Quarterly points to a rebound through the second half of the year — but a bumpy one.

CFIB's Main Street Quarterly, built on the same survey data behind its monthly Business Barometer, is projecting a rebound in GDP growth through the second and third quarters of the year, driven mainly by oil and gas production and continued activity in construction. That's a more constructive read than the headline confidence numbers alone suggest.

The numbers behind the forecast

Retail sales growth, which came in strong earlier in the year, is expected to moderate but stay positive through the third quarter. Payroll employment has been essentially flat, with only a slight uptick forecast for the coming quarters — moderate growth rather than a hiring boom. Inflation, meanwhile, ticked up on higher energy costs and is expected to stay a little above target before easing back.

Reading between the lines

For small business owners, the practical takeaway is that the broad economic backdrop is improving on paper, but not evenly. If your business leans on construction, energy services, or related supply chains, the forecast is more encouraging than the average headline. If you're in a sector more exposed to consumer discretionary spending, the moderating retail growth forecast is worth planning around rather than assuming the earlier pace continues.

It's also worth remembering these are forecasts, recalculated every month as new survey data comes in — useful for setting expectations, not for locking in a plan that assumes they'll land exactly as projected.