Even before August's broader dip, manufacturing optimism hadn't recovered since 2023 — and CFIB says tariffs have hit the sector harder than the last recession.

Canada's manufacturing sector has continued to lag well behind the rest of small business at just 53.7 index points as of July — a level CFIB says hasn't recovered since 2023, and one the organization says has been hit harder by tariffs than either the 2008-09 recession or the pandemic.

The numbers behind the gap

Shipping and receiving costs are a constraint for 63% of manufacturers, more than double the 29% recorded in February 2026. Input product costs are squeezing 77% of manufacturers, nearly twice the historical share for the sector. "This industry is in a very challenging spot," said CFIB director of economics Andreea Bourgeois — a read that's aged well given what August's broader confidence numbers went on to show.