CFIB's long-term index eased from June's reading, with short-term optimism falling more sharply as manufacturing, construction and transportation all weakened.

CFIB's Business Barometer long-term index — tracking 12-month expectations — slipped to 57.6 in August, down from 58.6 in June, as the sixth-straight Bank of Canada rate hold gave way to a much bigger story: the U.S.'s 50% tariffs actually taking effect.

Short-term optimism took the bigger hit

The three-month outlook fell more sharply, from 57.6 down to 52.4, with confidence deteriorating specifically in manufacturing, construction, transportation and utilities, and information/arts/recreation. Long-term sentiment actually improved in most other sectors, agriculture being the lone exception. Planned price increases held steady at 2.7%, while planned wage growth ticked up slightly to 2.5%.

CFIB's chief economist had specifically warned back in July that sentiment would likely soften once the new tariffs landed — that's exactly what the August numbers now confirm, though notably not the kind of cliff-edge drop the organization saw after the first tariff round in March 2025.