While Washington says a resolution could come soon, Canadian producers are already losing real sales — a Nova Scotia whisky maker and a New Brunswick brewery among them.

Despite the import bans on Canadian alcohol, dairy and vehicles that took effect this week, President Trump said Monday he believes the dispute could move toward a settlement within three to four weeks, telling reporters he expects Canada to approach Washington on its own terms. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer struck a less urgent tone, telling CNBC there was "no urgency on our side" to reach an agreement, noting substantial trade continues between the two countries despite the restrictions.

The gap between the rhetoric and what's happening on the ground

Whatever the timeline in Washington, Canadian exporters in the affected categories are already absorbing real losses. Moosehead Breweries, the New Brunswick brewer that sends roughly 15% of its output to the U.S., spent the weeks before the ban accelerating shipments to protect its American retail presence — a short-term fix that doesn't solve the underlying problem once existing inventory runs out. In Nova Scotia, whisky producer Lauchie MacLean told Reuters that a planned shipment to the U.S. was abandoned after the earlier 50% tariffs made the deal unworkable for the American buyer, well before the import ban made the question moot entirely.

Why both sides are holding firm

Greer has placed the blame for the escalation squarely on Canada, calling it a "natural consequence" of what he described as discriminatory treatment of U.S. exports and "senseless retaliation" in place of what he characterized as a near-final trade deal. Canadian officials, including Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, have pushed back on that framing, saying Canada won't sign an agreement that's bad for the country regardless of the pressure applied. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said officials from both countries remain in contact, with talks expected to resume "at the right time" — language that so far hasn't translated into an actual scheduled negotiation.

What exporters should take from this

For businesses in the directly affected categories — dairy, alcohol, vehicles — the practical reality is that neither side's public statements currently point to a fast resolution, regardless of Trump's three-to-four-week timeline. Moosehead's approach, pulling forward shipments to cover near-term demand, buys time but isn't a substitute for finding alternative markets if the ban extends past that window. Businesses considering the same stopgap should treat it as a bridge, not a plan, given how often the stated timelines in this dispute have already shifted.