The Bank has held at 2.25% for five straight meetings. Here's what would actually change that at next week's announcement.

The Bank of Canada's next scheduled rate announcement lands September 2, and the consensus among forecasters is unremarkable: another hold at 2.25%. That would make it six consecutive decisions without a move, a stretch of stability that's unusual after the aggressive cutting cycle that brought the rate down from 5.00% between mid-2024 and late 2025.

Why economists expect a hold

The Bank has been explicit that it's in a wait-and-see posture. Inflation has moved up on higher energy prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East, but the Bank has signalled it's looking through that shock rather than reacting to it, so long as it doesn't feed into broader, persistent price pressure. At the same time, the economy has shown gradual signs of improvement, which removes any urgency to cut further.

For that combination to change before September 2, either inflation would need to surprise meaningfully to the upside, or a fresh shock — trade-related or otherwise — would need to hit growth hard enough to justify a cut.

What it means if you run a business

A hold means the prime rate most lenders use for variable loans and lines of credit stays put too, currently sitting well below its 2023 peak. If you're carrying variable-rate debt, budget on the current rate holding through the announcement and into the following weeks — the Bank's next scheduled decision after September 2 isn't until late October, alongside its next full Monetary Policy Report.

If you've been waiting for a rate move to time a financing decision, a hold means there's no reason to keep waiting on the Bank specifically — the more relevant variables right now are your own cash flow and what a lender is willing to offer you today.