The index has repeatedly tested new highs through the summer, up more than 30% over the past year, despite the overhanging trade uncertainty.

The S&P/TSX Composite has repeatedly tested fresh highs through the summer, part of a run that's left the index up roughly 30% over the past twelve months, even as trade tensions with the U.S. escalated toward — and then through — the August tariff deadline.

Reading the run

Broad index performance and small business sentiment have diverged sharply this year — a reminder that a market's largest constituents (banks, energy, materials) aren't the same firms absorbing tariff costs directly. For an index this concentrated in financials and resources, the story at the top often looks very different from the story on Main Street, which is exactly what CFIB's August confidence numbers versus the TSX's record run illustrate side by side.